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| Photo by Susan J. Young |
Cruise pricing is trending slightly upward for some itineraries, based on the latest Cruise Tracker review of fares for 8,000-plus sailings on the eight largest cruise brands, according to Robin Farley, a leisure, gaming and lodging analyst for UBS Investment Research, who released the results in a research note to her firm's investors.
Six of the brands reviewed for the Cruise Tracker serve North Americans, the other two serve European guests. Farley said that while fourth quarter 2012 pricing is "flattish" within the past month, that's an improvement over the small drop seen in the same four-week (July-August) period in the third quarter.
She said that infers "the level of discounting we saw with third quarter sailings has not been occurring for fourth quarter sailings."
Looking ahead to 2013 sailings, the data tracker shows "flattish sequential pricing for 2013 in recent weeks," Farley reported, but also noted that improving trends spotted for 2013 cruises reflect what Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (www.rclinvestor.com) recently said about both load factor and the price on the books being up for the new year.
While Alaskan pricing has been down or flat, "pricing for Mediterranean itineraries is stable and improving," Farley said. That's the case for both western and eastern Mediterrnanean, with the western voyages performing better. Caribbean pricing is flat to down slightly this week but flat to up slightly over the past month.
Separately, a UBS Cruise Pricing Survey tracks pricing across a sample of itineraries and brands, but also takes into account historical comparisons.
Those specific pricing checks indicate cruise prices across the Caribbean saw a slight uptick over the past two weeks, after being flat to down slightly for the previous three weeks. Alaska has been flat over the past month.
On a positive note, though, Mediterranean pricing bounced back from a dip two weeks ago, so recent uptick now gets it to the level where it was beginning of October.
As for Hurricane Sandy, "while a major hurricane and its aftermath do not help to sell any cruises, we believe the impact on bookings from Sandy would be short-term, and that pricing trends in our tracker are more indicative of underlying demand levels, rather than what booking levels may have been in the last seven days," Farley stressed.
This week Michelle Fee, CEO and co-founder, Cruise Planners (www.cruiseplanners.com) told Travel Agent that during and after Sandy, the cruise lines did an admirable job of keeping partners informed about the status of ships and itineraries.
Overall,"we didn’t see too much impact on cruise travel, although some clients were affected by the storm as a result of the few itinerary changes and flight delays," Fee said.
She emphasized that once again the value of having an agent is clear. Fee said many Cruise Planners agents in the Northeast, some still without power, have been able to continue to do business during and after the storm as a result of Web-based programming and smartphone applications.