It’s official: the government of the United Kingdom has triggered Article 50, formally beginning the process of withdrawing from the European Union (EU), the BBC reports. But even as the process begins, overall signs of travel to Europe remain strong.
Travel to Europe overall was up 2 percent year over year in 2016 despite a series of tragic terrorist attacks, according to the latest numbers released by the European Travel Commission (ETC). The numbers from the U.S., however, were even better, with U.S. arrivals increasing by 8 percent year over year in 2016, according to the report.
That’s because travel to Europe has been buoyed by the dollar, which began to gain strength when the “Leave” vote on the Brexit referendum last summer triggered a fall in the value of the pound. A strong dollar means relatively cheaper prices in Europe and other destinations, with low hotel prices aiding London’s new overnight visitation record in 2016.
What’s Next
Following the Article 50 announcement, the EU has 48 hours to respond with draft negotiating guidelines. The EU is also likely to convene an emergency summit on April 6 to discuss the matter, according to the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), with negotiations to begin in earnest in June. After that, the UK and EU will have two years from today to agree on the terms of the exit as well as a new trading relationship. That deadline can be extended for up to one year. If the talks fail, the UK could leave the EU without any trade agreement.
The GBTA warns that the uncertainty caused by the negotiations could harm business travel.
“Uncertainty is never good for business,” the GBTA said in a written statement. “We have seen this in the impact of recent executive orders issued by President Trump to the electronics ban implemented by both the United States and the UK. The potential for financial upheaval and pending changes to trade and immigration rules will raise many concerns in corporate management and travel offices – causing some postponement and even outright cancellation of business trips. It may also trigger travel budget constriction as management seeks to hedge the uncertainty.”
At the same time, the GBTA noted that the negotiations could help break barriers to modernizing the EU’s aviation and airspace rules, and that the true impact of the rules will only be revealed as negotiations continue.
Some legal experts cited by the Washington Post say that the Article 50 could be reversible. Officials from the UK and EU, however, say that it is not.
At the same time, plans continue to promote travel to major destinations in Europe. The formal start of negotiations comes just one day after London and Paris announced a big new partnership to promote the two destinations jointly following the Brexit process. The agreement marks the first time the two cities will jointly showcase themselves to overseas visitors. The collaboration will launch in 2018.
Financial markets were largely unchanged following the announcement, according to the Post, as they had already mostly priced in Brexit.