A new set of reports from the U.S. Travel Association and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) show strong signs for the travel industry, but officials warned that the road ahead was not yet clear.
According to the U.S. Travel Association’s latest Travel Trends Index (TTI), international travel grew 7.8 percent year over year in January, marking the eighth straight year of expansion. At the same time, U.S. Travel economists warned that the most recent TTI is based on January data, collected mostly prior to President Donald Trump’s travel ban.
"International inbound travel is proving to be more resilient than we expected," said U.S. Travel Association Senior Vice President for Research David Huether. "It will be very interesting to see if that resilience will withstand the negative publicity surrounding the January 27th executive order. It will be just as interesting to see if yesterday's revised order will have any soothing effect, for which we will see solid data in May."
Yesterday the Trump administration issued a newly revised travel ban targeting the same countries as the previous order, minus Iraq. Other changes included exempting legal U.S. residents, dual nationals and current visa holders from the order. Previous reports on the ban’s travel impact, including the travelhorizons survey by travel marketing firm MMGY Global, found that the ban was negatively impacting outbound travel from the U.S. In the travelhorizons survey of U.S. travelers, 43 percent of respondents felt that their outbound international travel plans would be impacted by the Trump administration, with responses differing based on age and party affiliation.
While travel to the U.S. may be strong overall, some trouble spots remain. According to a new forecast released by NYC & Company, New York’s destination marketing organization, the city is forecasting a 2.1 percent decline in international visitors — the first since the onset of the Great Recession in 2008. In a written release Chris Heywood, a spokesperson for NYC & Company, said that the travel ban was hurting the image of the United States abroad, even in those countries not impacted by the ban.
“These restrictions are creating an image problem for many international travelers, regardless if they’re included in the ban or not,” said Heywood.
Domestic leisure travel also grew year over year in January, increasing at a rate slightly below the six-month average. Altogether, U.S. Travel forecasts that U.S. travel volume will likely grow at around 1.9 percent through July 2017.
The forecast for domestic business travel also strengthened due to a strong stock market and high business confidence, according to the report. According the the U.S. Travel Association forecast, domestic business travel is likely to continue growing through July, reversing what the organization described as months of stagnation.
The U.S. Travel Association said that a complete set of data on travel to the U.S. post-travel ban would be available in April.
Air Travel Hits Five-Year High
Air travel demand also hit a five-year high in January, according to new data from the IATA, with demand rising 9.6 percent compared to January 2016. The IATA noted that the results were positively affected by the timing of the Lunar New Year, which occurred in January of this year as opposed to February of last year.
"2017 is off to a very strong start, with demand at levels not seen since 2011,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general and CEO, in a written release. “This is supported by the upturn in the global economic cycle and a return to a more normal environment after the terrorism and political ‘shock’ events seen in early 2016.”
Breaking the stats down by region, international air travel was up 10.9 percent in Asia Pacific, and up 8.3 percent in Europe. The Middle East showed the strongest growth at 14.4 percent, while North America had the weakest growth, with traffic rising only 3.2 percent. Latin America was strong as well, climbing 8.2 percent, while air travel in Africa was up 5.6 percent.
Domestic air travel also showed strong growth in January, up 9.9 percent overall. Domestic air travel grew in all markets except Brazil, posting double-digit gains in China, India and Russia.
“Air travel liberates people to lead better lives and creates greater economic opportunity for all by bringing people closer to trade and markets. Governments have a responsibility to secure their borders,” said de Juniac. “They must also preserve the enormous economic and social benefits provided by borders that are open to trade and travel.”