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PATA Tourism Forecasts Show Mixed Bag of Growth and DeclineApril 2, 2009 By: Mark Rogers
There’s some encouraging data coming from Pacific Asia Travel Association about the immediate future for Asia Pacific tourism. The PATA Tourism Forecasts 2009-2011, to be published later this month, suggests growth in international arrivals for many destinations across the region. However, all-in-all it’s a mixed bag of results across the region. The forecast covers visitor arrivals, trends and market share analysis for more than 40 destinations and departure forecasts for 12 Asia Pacific source markets. Tourism receipts for 19 Asia Pacific destinations are also included.
"The numbers of international arrivals, from both within the region and from long-haul source markets, are expected to remain largely positive - but the strong growth rates of recent years will prove now to be the exception rather than the rule," says John Koldowski, PATA's strategic intelligence director.
Here are some highlights from the yet-to-be released PATA Tourism Forecasts 2009-2011:
Southeast Asia: International arrivals will grow to nearly 77 million by 2011 (compared to 62.2 million in 2007) with only Myanmar likely to record negative growth results.
Northeast Asia: Mongolia and Macau will grow at double digit rates while international arrivals will reach almost 240 million by 2011 (206 million in 2007).
South Asia: Sri Lanka will remain in negative territory but the region will benefit as a whole from an increase in international arrivals to over 9 million by 2011 (7.4 million in 2007).
Americas: Chile is expected to perform above average with growth forecast at 4.26 percent. International arrivals by 2011 are forecast to top 106 million (90.2 million in 2007).