A draft of President Donald Trump’s revised travel ban targets the same seven Muslim-majority countries as the original executive order – Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Sudan and Libya -- according to sources cited by the Associated Press. The draft order also exempts travelers who already have a visa to travel to the United States, even if they haven’t used the visa yet. Green card holders and dual citizens of the U.S. are also reportedly exempt, and the order no longer directs authorities to single out and reject Syrian refugees when processing new visa applications.
The U.S. Justice Department reported late last week that the administration intends to “rescind and replace” the original travel ban, which triggered travel delays and protests at airports across the United States when it was first implemented. Several lawsuits against the ban followed, with a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit eventually ruling against lifting a court-ordered suspension of the ban.
In a recent press call with Travel Agent, Eben Peck, SVP, government and industry affairs at the American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA) said that the ban was having a “chilling effect” on the travel industry. At the same time, ASTA said that the views of its membership on the policy are split, and that it would release a survey diving deeper into what its member agents think of the ban.
U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Roger Dow had said that, while his organization recognizes the need to maintain national security, the order could hurt business and leisure travel to the United States.
"Over the past two weeks, our members have voiced their concerns about how an unintended consequence of this executive order could be a reduction in both international leisure and business travel to the United States,” Dow said. “Destinations large and small depend on these visitors to sustain local businesses and jobs.
"That said, we stand with the administration, Congress and law enforcement officials, as we all remain vigilant during an era of constantly changing global security dynamics,” Dow said. “As always, we believe in striking a balance that places a premium on both security and our nation’s history as a welcoming place for travelers from around the globe."
According to a series of studies cited by the New York Times, the executive order was immediately followed by a drop in interest in travel to the United States. The airfare prediction app Hopper found that flight search demand from 122 countries dropped 17 percent between January 26 and February 1, while OTA Cheapflights.com saw a 38 percent decline in searches from January 27 to 29 compared with the previous weekend. Travel research company ForwardKeys found a 6.5 percent year over year decline in international bookings to the U.S., while England-based tour operator Responsible Travel saw a 22 percent decrease in trip inquiries to the U.S. following the ban.
In terms of the U.S. economy as a whole, 70 percent of economists interviewed by Bloomberg report that the ban will have “little to no effect” immediately on the 2017 gross domestic product. Many of the economists in the survey say that they are doubtful the ban will “stick,” as even this week’s revised executive order will likely trigger a fresh round of legal challenges. Further immigration restrictions of this kind, however, could have a bigger impact on U.S. economic health down the road, economists warned.
"Of more concern is President Trump's apparent belief that protectionism can succeed," Tom Fullerton, an economics professor at the University of Texas at El Paso, told Bloomberg. "Raising protectionist barriers and/or withdrawing from Nafta could easily cause a re-birth of stagflation due to ensuing supply chain disruptions."
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