NOAA offers some good news for cruisers: conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division reports. “NOAA’s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years,” said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco.
For the entire six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5).
NOAA says, based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Favoring storm development in 2012: the continuation of the overall conditions associated with the Atlantic high-activity era that began in 1995, in addition to near-average sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, known as the Main Development Region.
NOAA cites two factors now in place that can limit storm development, if they persist, are: strong wind shear, which is hostile to hurricane formation in the Main Development Region, and cooler sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Atlantic.
Another potentially competing climate factor would be El Niño if it develops by late summer to early fall.
NOAA says the seasonal outlook does not predict how many storms will hit land.
NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin is for a near-normal hurricane season and the Central Pacific basin is expected to have a below-normal season. NOAA will issue an updated seasonal outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.