UBS Reports Q4 Looking Better Than Q3 for Cruise Lines

Q4 Looking Better Than Q3 for Cruise Lines.According to UBS, cruise pricing showed that June saw some discounting. Recent data came in positive sequentially but was the first positive data point since trends turned negative in late May. Pricing has been overall softer sequentially in all of June. Q4 is looking better than Q3 in terms of sequential week-over-week pricing, while 2015 pricing has been stable, after a couple of weeks of discounting to build base in the first half of May.

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Cumulatively, over the past 4 weeks, Costa is down, in addition to Carnival, Princess and Holland America. All are down 100-160 bps cumulatively. Celebrity is up the most, followed by Norwegian and Cunard. All of these brands had positive data points over the same period. Royal Caribbean is flat over the past four weeks in week over week pricing. Bahamas and Canada & New England itineraries have been soft in June compared to Caribbean which continued sequential pricing decrease in all of June but is down less versus Bahamas and Canada & New England. Western and Eastern itineraries also saw softness in June. Alaska has been stable to slightly down but faring better than Caribbean or Western and Eastern Mediterranean over the past four week period.

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Pricing checks are based on average price over 8,000+ sailings for six largest North American cruise lines and two of largest European lines.