"Seeing strong volume late in Wave Season" is Robin Farley, a cruise industry analyst with UBS Investment Services.
In advance of Carnival Corporation's upcoming earnings report, she provided these tidbits for investors:
- UBS projects a 2.3 percent increase in first quarter 2017 yield, up slightly from both analyst and cruise company guidance.
- With roughly 45 percent of the first quarter sailings in the Caribbean and 10 percent in Europe, UBS projects overall solid North American demand for Caribbean itineraries.
- UBS' estimate of net cruise costs, excluding fuel and other factors, are up less than one percent (0.06 percent), which is both under UBS' and the financial community's overall estimate of a one percent net cruise cost increase.
- The calendar for the upcoming New Year's holiday is slightly less favorable, year-over-year, which would mostly be a first quarter impact for the cruise lines.
- UBS currently sees 2.6 percent annual net yield growth for Carnival Corp. in 2017, compared to the company's guidance of 2.5 percent increase and UBS' estimate of 2.8 percent.
- Referring to Wave Season, she said: "we believe [it] has been strong."
- While UBS' checks are showing solid volume, it's despite the fact that New York, New Jersey and Connecticut sourcing hasn't been as strong.
- That's generally attributed to warm winter weather over the past few months in the Northeast, although March storms may have helped bolster demand.
- "The promotional environment continues to focus on non-cash value adds, which is a positive sign."
Farley told investors to expect a good outlook from Carnival Corp.'s upcoming earnings report, but said she'd likely wait to raise UBS' earnings guidance. She indicates that Carnival is likely to release earnings during the week of March 27.