Passenger are expected to reach 7.3 billion by 2034, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports in its first 20-year passenger growth forecast, projecting that the gain represents a 4.1 percent average annual growth in demand. It also is a doubling of the 3.3 billion passengers expected to travel this year.
China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest passenger market (defined by traffic to, from and within) by 2030, IATA says. Both markets, however, are expected to remain the largest by a wide margin. In 2034 flights to, from and within China will account for some 1.3 billion passengers, 856 million more than 2014 with an average annual growth rate of 5.5 percent.
Traffic to, from and within the U.S. is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 3.2 percent, IATA forecasts, and will see 1.2 billion passengers by 2034 (559 million more than 2014).
"People can only fly as long as ticket taxes don’t price them out of their seats, " warns Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO. "And air connectivity can only thrive when nations open their skies and their markets. It’s a virtuous circle. Growing connectivity stimulates economies. And healthy economies demand greater connectivity. The message of this forecast is that there is great potential if all aviation stakeholders—including governments—play their role,” said Tyler.
By 2034 the five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional passengers per year will be China (856 million new passengers per year), the U.S. (559 million), India (266 million), Indonesia (183 million) and Brazil (170 million).
The United States will remain the largest air passenger market until around 2030, when it will drop to number two, behind China. Cumulatively over the next 20 years the US will carry 18.3 billion more passengers and China 16.9 billion.
The North American region will grow by 3.3 percent annually and in 2034 will carry a total of 1.4 billion passengers, an additional 649 million passengers a year, IATA forecasts.
The United States domestic market will expand to 822 million passengers, an additional 384 million passengers annually compared to 2014.
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