Veteran airline analyst Darryl Jenkins, founder and president of www.theairlinezone.com, has released a new analysis examining potential scenarios that could determine the future of the airline industry.
The report, Wither the Airline Industry: Will it get better or worse?, finds that a number of circumstances – from changes in jet fuel price to consolidation to bankruptcies – could influence the success or failure of the airline industry as we know it.
In his evaluation, Jenkins discusses eleven potential scenarios that might come to fruition, including: capacity issues are solved by jet fuel price; consolidation does not end with a whimper; global consolidation; price of oil goes to $200 a barrel; new round of bankruptcies; a glut of new entrants; corporations utilize more general aviation; Congress re-regulates; regional airlines consolidate; the Emirates take over the world; and the FAA actually does get NEXTGEN online and working.
“No one can be certain where the coming decades will take the airline industry, but if Darwinian theory taught us anything it is that adapting to our environment is essential to survival,” said Jenkins. “Regardless of which scenarios hold true, what happens in the future will simply make the industry different. How airlines and consumers adapt to these changes will ultimately determine the industry’s fate.”
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