Travel analytics firm ForwardKeys has identified six major trends in global air travel this summer. They are revealed by an analysis of the top destinations and top origin markets compared to last year and to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. The major trends are:
- U.S. dominance
- Patchy post-pandemic recovery
- The Far East revving up
- Resilience of classic beach destinations
- The heat wave
- Worldwide, summer (July 1 to August 31) flight bookings were 23 percent behind pre-pandemic (2019) levels and 31 percent ahead of last year.
In the ranking of the most-visited country destinations by share of scheduled flight bookings, the U.S. was top of the list by a substantial margin, attracting 11 percent of all international visitors this summer. It was followed by Spain, the U.K., Italy, Japan, France, Mexico, Germany, Canada and Türkiye. The U.S. was even more dominant in outbound travel. In the ranking of source markets, the United States was tops with an 18 percent share of scheduled flight bookings. It was followed by Germany, the U.K., Canada, France, South Korea, China, Japan, Spain and Italy.
For most countries, travel was up on last year by a double-digit figure, but volumes have yet to reach pre-pandemic levels. A closer look at the world’s traditionally largest outbound travel markets reveals the patchy nature of the recovery. The U.S., 17 percent up on last year, was just 1 percent down on 2019 volumes; however, other traditionally large source markets were much further off the pace: Germany was 21 percent down on pre-pandemic levels, the U.K. 20 percent down, France 17 percent down, South Korea 28 percent down, China 67 percent down, Japan 53 percent down and Italy 24 percent down.
Also striking are the differences in travel volumes compared to last year, revealing the extent to which the Far East was still in lockdown but is now revving up, with all three Asian countries in the top 10 source markets—namely South Korea, China and Japan—showing at least a triple-digit growth rate compared to 2022. While the Chinese outbound travel market has been among the slowest in the world to recover, it still manages to hit seventh place owing to its sheer size.
Looking at the destinations that have done best against 2019 levels, the list is dominated by countries popular for their beaches and warm waters. The top 10 all exceeded the summer of 2019 and most showed strong growth from last year. Top of the list is Costa Rica, 19 percent up on 2019 and 15 percent up on 2022. It is followed by the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Argentina, Greece, Tanzania, the Bahamas and Mexico. Throughout the pandemic, leisure travel to beach destinations proved to be the most resilient, with many highly tourism dependent economies in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico working hard to keep their borders open and the tourists coming; and their efforts have certainly paid off. The same has also been true of Greece, Portugal and the United Arab Emirates.
While the unusually high temperatures and the outbreak of wildfires in Greece and Portugal made a substantial impact on television screens; they made only a limited impact on tourism, as most holidaymakers had already booked. A spate of cancelations affected Rhodes, but flight bookings recovered to normal levels in a matter of weeks. While bookings for Northern Europe and the Nordic region were 16 percent and 17 percent behind 2019, they demonstrated better performance in the late bookings market, probably influenced by the heat wave.
For more information, visit www.forwardkeys.com.
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