According to United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), global tourism witnessed a 4 percent increase in 2021, compared to 2020 (415 million versus 400 million); however, international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) were still 72 percent below the pre-pandemic year of 2019. This follows 2020—the worst year on record for tourism—when international arrivals plunged by 73 percent.
This year’s first issue of the “UNWTO World Tourism Barometer” suggests that rising rates of vaccination, coupled with easing of travel bans due to increased cross-border coordination and protocols, have all helped release pent-up demand. International tourism rebounded moderately during the second half of 2021, with international arrivals down 62 percent in both the third and fourth quarters compared to pre-pandemic levels. According to limited data, international arrivals in December were 65 percent below 2019 levels. The full impact of the Omicron variant and surge in COVID-19 cases is yet to be seen.
The pace of recovery remains slow and uneven across world regions due to varying degrees of mobility restrictions, vaccination rates and traveler confidence. Although Europe and the Americas recorded the strongest results in 2021 compared to 2020 (+19 percent and +17 percent respectively), both were still 63 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
By sub-region, the Caribbean saw the best performance (+63 percent above 2020, though 37 percent below 2019), with some destinations nearing or exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Southern Mediterranean Europe (+57 percent) and Central America (+54 percent) also enjoyed a significant rebound but remain 54 percent and 56 percent down on 2019 levels respectively. North America (+17 percent) and Central Eastern Europe (+18 percent) also climbed above 2020 levels.
Meanwhile, Africa saw a 12 percent growth in arrivals in 2021 compared to 2020, though this is still 74 percent below 2019. In the Middle East arrivals slumped 24 percent compared to 2020 and 79 percent over 2019. In Asia and the Pacific arrivals were still 65 percent below 2020 levels and 94 percent when compared to pre-pandemic values as many destinations remained closed to non-essential travel.
The economic contribution of tourism in 2021 (measured in tourism direct gross domestic product) is estimated at $1.9 trillion, above the $1.6 trillion in 2020, but still below the pre-pandemic value of $3.5 trillion. Export revenues from international tourism could exceed $700 billion in 2021, a slight improvement over 2020 due to higher spending per trip, but less than half the $1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.
Average receipts per arrival are estimated to have reached $1,500 in 2021, up from $1,300 in 2020. This is due to pent-up savings and longer lengths of stay, as well as higher transport and accommodation prices. France and Belgium reported comparatively smaller declines in tourism expenditure with -37 percent and -28 percent, respectively, over 2019. Saudi Arabia (-27 percent) and Qatar (-2 percent) also posted somewhat better results in 2021.
According to UNWTO’s panel of experts, most tourism professionals (61 percent) envision better prospects for 2022. While 58 percent expect a rebound in 2022, mostly during the third quarter, 42 percent point to a potential rebound only in 2023. A majority of experts (64 percent) expect international arrivals to return to 2019 levels only in 2024 or later, up from 45 percent in the September survey.
The “UNWTO Confidence Index” shows a slight dip between January and April this year. According to experts, a rapid and more widespread vaccination rollout, followed by a major lifting of travel bans, and more coordination and clearer information on travel protocols are the main factors necessary for the effective recovery of international tourism. UNWTO scenarios indicate that international tourist arrivals could rise by 30 percent to 78 percent as compared to 2021; however, this is still 50 to 63 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
The recent surge in COVID-19 cases and the Omicron variant are set to disrupt the recovery and affect confidence through early 2022 as some countries reintroduce travel bans and restrictions for certain markets. The vaccination rollout also remains uneven and many destinations still have their borders completely closed, mostly in Asia and the Pacific. A challenging economic environment could put additional pressure on the effective recovery of international tourism, with the surge in oil prices, increase in inflation, potential rise in interest rates, high debt volumes and the continued disruption in supply chains. That said, the ongoing tourism recovery in many markets, mostly in Europe and the Americas, coupled with the widespread vaccination rollout and a major coordinated lifting of travel bans, could help restore consumer confidence, thereby accelerating the recovery of international tourism in 2022.
While international tourism bounces back, domestic tourism continues to drive recovery of the sector in an increasing number of destinations, particularly those with large domestic markets. UNWTO forecasts that domestic tourism and travel close to home, as well as open-air activities, nature-based products and rural tourism are among the major travel trends that will continue shaping the sector in 2022.
Related Stories
Spain to Require Booster Shots for Visitors
Caribbean Tourism Believes Scaled Rebound Likely By End of 2022
U.N. Report Shows Importance of Tourism tor Economic Recovery