A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is not expected to develop into a storm, according to the National Hurricane Center. With that said, some development of this system, currently associated with a tropical wave, is possible over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph toward the islands, (which include Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada).
The National Hurricane Center currently gives the storm a formation chance through 48 hours at 20 percent and a formation chance through five days also at 20 percent.
By late Saturday, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for additional development while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday and Saturday.
In July, Colorado State University decreased the severity of its forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. According to the organization, colder-than-normal waters in the Atlantic, and increased odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months, means that 2018 will now likely have below-average hurricane activity. It’s a bit of positive news after the region suffered from one of the worst hurricane seasons in history in 2017 (which the University also predicted).
For more information, visit www.nhc.noaa.gov.